Manuel Erhardt @erhardt@librem.one

An interesting paper on #Ukraine #migration into #Poland with very interesting findings:

We examine the impact of two massive and unexpected inflows of Ukrainians on voting behavior in Poland. The two migration shocks, caused by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, allow us to disentangle the effects of conflict induced labor migration from those of refugee inflows. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that greater exposure to labor migrants reduces support for conservative parties in the short run and subsequently shifts voter preferences toward pro-redistribution parties. We do not find similar effects for refugees, who, unlike temporary labor migrants, had access to social benefits. However, exposure to both types of Ukrainian migration leads to a decrease in far-right voting. This effect emerges only after the salience of Ukrainian migrants increases due to the escalation of Russia’s aggression and the rise of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric from the Polish far-right. The backlash from Polish voters against the far-right rhetoric is ten times stronger in areas exposed to refugees than to labor migrants. Our results are robust to the use of a number of instruments and several sensitivity checks.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5223038

⚡️Ukraine proposes extending truce beyond Easter Sunday.

"Thirty hours is enough for headlines, but not for real confidence-building measures," President Volodymyr Zelensky said. "Thirty days can give peace a chance."

🔗 https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-proposes-extending-truce-beyond-easter-sunday/

❗️🇲🇩 Russia wants to replace Moldova’s leadership with pro-Kremlin puppets and use the country against Ukraine, warns President Maia Sandu. She emphasized that Ukraine remains Moldova’s shield — and Chișinău has a moral duty to stay out of Putin’s war.

https://www.jurnal.md/ro/news/9e52a81ca0a35a0d/video-maia-sandu-despre-miza-kremlinului-sa-schimbe-conducerea-cu-oameni-loiali-si-sa-foloseasca-rm-impotriva-ucrainei.html

Fakt des Tages

As long as #Hezbollah remains an active force in the region, #Israel 🇮🇱 will see no need to exit southern #Lebanon 🇱🇧 (& will face no significant pressure to withdraw).

👉🏾 Lebanon’s 🇱🇧 president says he seeks to disarm Hezbollah this year https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/16/middleeast/lebanons-president-says-he-seeks-to-disarm-hezbollah-this-year-intl/index.html

While President Zelenskyy was in Kryvyi Rih mourning 9 children killed on their playground by a Russian missile, Trump's special envoy Steven Witkoff hung out with Putin who fired the missile.

Citizens of the US, you deserve better leaders.

I do not tire of enjoying seeing people enthusing about how they've set up their first self-hosted service, or how they've tried a piece of Free software for the first time.

Each is an achievement in its own right, irrespective of how many people have done it before them.

Studie: Menschen arbeiten trotz Grundeinkommens nicht weniger

1.200 Euro monatlich - ohne Bedingungen. Das erhielten Teilnehmer einer deutschlandweiten Studie. Sie zeigt: Das bedingungslose Grundeinkommen führt nicht zu weniger Arbeit, sondern zu mehr Weiterbildung und Wohlbefinden.

➡️ https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/bedingungsloses-grundeinkommen-studie-100.html?at_medium=mastodon&at_campaign=tagesschau.de

#bedingungslosesGrundeinkommen #Studie #Einkommen

Is Russia recruiting migrants to carry out attacks on European soil? Germany may have uncovered a ‘smoking gun’.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/08/is-russia-recruiting-migrant-attackers/

#Ukraine #Russia #EU #Germany

Also, verstehe ich das richtig: Putin lässt die russische Armee Ukraine überfallen; doch statt zu kapitulieren, wehrt sie sich seit über drei Jahren; daher schlägt Putin nun vor, Ukraine unter UN-Verwaltung zu stellen, sprich die UN zum Exekutor seiner imp. Ziele zu machen.👇🏽

The "Coalition of the Willing" summit has begun in Paris, where world leaders aim to lay the groundwork for long-term security guarantees for Ukraine.

#France #Paris #NATO #EU #UK #Canada