Valuable compilation of experts from global think-tanks on international policy with their assessments on perspectives on #Russia war in #Ukraine. Experts from the West are predictably sober in realization that “Putin wants the whole Ukraine” and “ceasefire just means a new war in a few years” (doesn’t mean they’re wrong, I just simply agree and have nothing to add).
More interesting are predictions from experts from countries like Turkey, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Singapore, China because they are rarely present in my information bubble. Nonetheless, their assessments are rather equally sober in understanding Putin’s goals and the only difference that one or two of them tend to drift into the smooth talk about “the need for diplomacy”, kind of ignoring what they just said about the goals.
Probably the most scathing is the assessment of an expert from Russia, who rather openly laughs on Russia’s declared goals of “demilitarization, denazification and neutralization of Ukraine”. But it’s a rather bitter laughter, as he admit these goals make negotiations impossible.
https://www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils/global-memos/global-perspectives-ending-russia-ukraine-war
@kravietz
> tend to drift into the smooth talk about “the need for diplomacy”, kind of ignoring what they just said about the goals
They are probably trying to sell the good old "No NATO expansion" narrative — and sadly those who still buy this bullshit do exist.
But there is more — this pipe dream of a demilitarized zone with UN peacekeepers coming from a couple of experts — that's just… Wow! I lack proper words to describe this. Where do they get their stuff? I want some of that too 🤪
@kravietz
"But it’s a rather bitter laughter, as he admit these goals make negotiations impossible"
This opinion is a surprisingly sober one IMO. Same for the one of an expert from Turkey. And the South African expert is making countries from the region seem more important for this conflict than they really are.
@kravietz
This looks really bad though: https://infosec.exchange/@kevinrothrock/111973057313773147
It doesn't mean a thing for now, but the fatigue is building up and the belief that some compromise is at all possible is particularly concerning.
It's the same opinion you see online a lot on the Israel-Gaza conflict: "Why don't we all just live peace and stop shooting?",— nothing good ever comes out of this, it comes from those who don't have any idea for permanent solution.