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@gemlog
Hard to make any predictions ATM — too many factors with unpredictable outcomes: Trump's actions, elections in Germany, Russian economy further deteriorating…
But I don't think they'll be able to negotiate any "peace", at least the way they see it, at this point it's European politicians' pipe dream, even with Ukraine secessing lands. And Trump doesn't even understand what he's dealing with yet, once he realises, I think he'll do something unpredictable.
@gemlog
Like he did with Iran — ordering a sudden missile strike, this won't be a missile strike this time — but it would be something equally unexpected.
In any case, I think we'll see the war continue in 2025. Russia will attempt to make a push in the coming months with huge casualties — but won't be able to achieve equally significant gains, won't even be able to push Ukraine's army out of Kurst oblast. Ukraine would be more conservative — retreating, but at a steady pace.