@jautero i still *kind of* believe in innocent until proven guilty as a societal construct, but light reading on spooks and a couple years watching people playing deception games like SS13 and MUSH ... that's not at all how security apparati operate.
taleb made some interesting points about the current obsessions with empiricism and how negative empiricism has gone missing, which puts some perspectives on things.
more specifically, negative empiricism has the interesting effect of making you figure out how to disprove your own idea and it only takes ~1 data point to do this. contrast to normal empiricism which obsesses over finding supporting evidence (and thus leads to a lot of confirmation bias.)
medicine kinda casually asks these questions but its buried as sensitivity/specificity.
so basically, have to ask two questions
is there evidence bullshit happened
is there evidence bullshit did *not* happen
do the facilities even exist to have detected the bullshit in question