1/ I am the Executive Director of a SuperPAC. I instituted a policy to not fund election polling. Let me tell you why, and why we know little about how tonight will go.
I believe modern polling can no longer accurately predict the margins in play, 1 or 2 percent.
Here’s a dirty little secret about poling. They are drastically less accurate today than ten years ago.
2/ The reason for this is pretty straightforward. Technology has made it less straightforward to get participants.
Everyone in the business ends up “correcting” their data in a myriad of ways. And the assumptions of their model have to be true for the poll to be accurate.
If you torture data long enough, it will tell you what you want to hear.
3/ Something we do to try to counter this problem is to average a bunch of polls together.
But there are 1000 ways this can go wrong. Who is conducting the poll? Are you assuming Republicans are more motivated? How do you factor in issue salience? Younger people voting? With every assumption you make in the model, you run more risk. And again, 1 or 2 percentage points.
4/ My opinion is polls are great for telling you what issues and messages work in general terms. We fund those.
But I don’t think they’ve proven to be particularly accurate at figuring out tight elections that hinge on a percentage point or two.
In fact, I think they hurt democracy. Because people tend to vote when they think they can win, and polls can distort that perception.
5/ Before I say this, want to add that I love and appreciate men in general. You look great today. Have you been working out? Please don’t get angry.
But, my other opinion is I’ve looked at models, and I think they’re generally built by men who are statistically underestimating how much abortion is going to drive turnout.
Men, as a cohort, tend to underestimate women. Especially men who think they’re too smart to have biases.
6/ Bottom line? Let’s not see any gnashing of teeth and tearing of garments before tonight. Vote. Make your voice heard. Don’t assume the worst.
We know a lot less about how tonight is going to go than the Pollsters with the financial incentive to think they’re the second coming of Nostradamus believe.
@briannawu and to be fair even a few of them are starting to publically say they don't know how this is going to turn out either.
All the more reason to get out and Vote!!
